Are more of them coming in because there are more of them, or because they’re visiting the doctor more often? Homosexual men for example have pretty bad health as a group, both physical and mental, and maybe visits are up because in the current cultural climate they don’t feel as embarrassed about visiting a physician for a STD as was the case 10 years ago.
The reason I don’t think this is driven by gays but rather the wishy washy self identification of alternative sexual and gender identities is because the percentages fluctuate by so much by generation, and also the boom took off right when gender identity first started becoming a thing in mainstream discourse, right around 2010. I find it hard to believe that generation A is gay at a 2% rate but generation B five times as gay, and the generation after that twice as gay again.
I think it’s more likely that the way the smorgasbord of gender identities is defined virtually anyone can find an identity they can identify with whenever they want to - there’s no objective physical or biological standard - it’s all about “feelings”. This is how the percentages jump so rapidly from Gen to Gen and also over the space of just 10 years. It’s not biology, it’s social behavior.
There’s a journalist called Abigail Schrier who wrote a good book on transgenderism in teenage girls and her conclusion is that it’s a craze, because of how ultra concentrated these incidences are within circles of friends, usually groups of girls who have low social status, and also how they come exclusively (she interviewed 70+ families) from left wing families. She compared it to the craze of anorexia a couple of decades ago.
Adolescents are highly impressionable and the queer lifestyle is being pumped to the max now in the media. Many can choose to identify as whatever (for now) and then abandon it a few years from now - the bar to entry and exit from the LGBT club is so low now that virtually anyone can hop in and hop out of the club at a moments notice.
Remember the common knowledge that 10% of the population is gay? I’ve heard that umpteen times over the past two decades but very few people know that this statistic was a fabrication created by a gay activist called Luke Sissyfag, which was picked up without question by gay-friendly journalists and repeated around the world until it became a “fact”. I think they overstate their numbers whenever they can for political reasons.
Also I don’t think homosexual behavior is as fixed as you suggest. I personally know a woman who became lesbian for 4 years after being in a relationship with a ghetto dude who used to beat her, then decided she wasn’t and has had a boyfriend again for the past 5-6 years. In her case it was definitely a choice, not an innate urge. She’s kind of whacky and swings from extremes to extremes in many areas of her life, not just relationships.
I know of another dude who hooked up with a girl, who turned out to have a dong once “she” pulled her skirt down. He related the story as realizing that the she was a he halfway through foreplay, but decided to just go through with it anyway since he was already horny and in the heat of the moment. This was a choice. He’s not attracted to men. He didn’t see anything weird about this - I guess that’s just how he was raised - he was attracted to what looked like an Asian female but turned out to be a ladyboy, but even after realizing this figured “eh, a hole is a hole”.
The first link in my original post has a study on the LGBTQ rates in 25 other countries, both developed and underdeveloped. The general rate of non-heteroxesuality seems to be indeed about 10%, but that is an increase over the "traditional" rate of 1%-2% globally. So, unless people in all those other countries are also embracing the fad then there does seem to be a genuine increase in rates. Also if there is fluctuation, have we ever seen numbers as high as 20% in young people, as the study above suggests?
I agree that there is a fad component. Some people are clearly also using it for personal benefit too. I am sure you have seen the news about male rapists suddenly identifying as female to either get a more lenient treatment or get sent to a female prison. The question is what portion of the increase is a fad and what portion is genuine. The T levels of males have been dropping since the 1970s and now are in the range of 10-year old boys at the age when they should be the highest.
So, it is hard to deny that there is shift in endocrine profile in both sexes. As discussed in the other thread on gender wars, males are becoming more feminized and women more masculinized. Estrogen (and estrogenic endocrine disruptors) are known to cause precisely that in the respective gender. There is also a well-established link between endocrine disruptor overload (which can explain the low T) and homosexual behavior and gender ambiguity (i.e. born with either underdeveloped gonads for their sex, or with both female and male gonads) in animals.
I guess, as usual, time will tell. If in another five years another study finds a decline then we will know it is/was a (periodic) fad. I, personally, was just taken aback at the magnitude - roughly 1 in 5 of young people.