boris
Member
- Joined
- Oct 1, 2019
- Messages
- 2,345
People still use the number of corona cases as an argument during the ongoing crisis. But....
....the cases are a absolutely meaningless metric. Think about it...... what does the number of cases tell you actually?
There is an important factor missing to derive any meaning from the number of cases, that is the number of people tested. The positivity rate among the tested, that would actually tell you something. The number of cases alone holds ZERO information.
Why do they only talk about the cases? Well the german government has a corona strategy paper that tells you exactly why. Because reporting solely the number of cases is one of the tools to create the necessary fear so people comply with drastic measures (the positivity rate would bring people back to reality).
Of course this is highly problematic, because if you only hear about the cases and not the actual positivity rate among the tested, there is all kinds of manipulation possible. Just double the tests and the cases will double.
Don't believe they would abuse that?
Here are the numbers from the RKI (german CDC) of the lockdown week.
(1st row: week of the year. 2nd row: number of tests per week. 3rd row: positive tests.)
You can see how they bumped up the numbers just by almost tripling the tests in one week from 127k to 348k. This bumped up the cases from 7k to 23k. The RKI chief said "we have exponential growth, if we don't do anything, millions will get sick and can not be treated because of overburdened hospitals".
He implied a growth of new infections of 300%. The actual growth was 0.9% (The positivity rate grew from 5.9% to 6.8%).
The only thing growing exponentially were the tests.
Who might have come up with that idea ?
(How To Lie With Statistics)
I found that any corona believers arguments stopped after confronting them with this (minus the Gates thing, because that is too deep a trigger for most ). Is there similar proof for other countries?
....the cases are a absolutely meaningless metric. Think about it...... what does the number of cases tell you actually?
There is an important factor missing to derive any meaning from the number of cases, that is the number of people tested. The positivity rate among the tested, that would actually tell you something. The number of cases alone holds ZERO information.
Why do they only talk about the cases? Well the german government has a corona strategy paper that tells you exactly why. Because reporting solely the number of cases is one of the tools to create the necessary fear so people comply with drastic measures (the positivity rate would bring people back to reality).
Of course this is highly problematic, because if you only hear about the cases and not the actual positivity rate among the tested, there is all kinds of manipulation possible. Just double the tests and the cases will double.
Don't believe they would abuse that?
Here are the numbers from the RKI (german CDC) of the lockdown week.
(1st row: week of the year. 2nd row: number of tests per week. 3rd row: positive tests.)
You can see how they bumped up the numbers just by almost tripling the tests in one week from 127k to 348k. This bumped up the cases from 7k to 23k. The RKI chief said "we have exponential growth, if we don't do anything, millions will get sick and can not be treated because of overburdened hospitals".
He implied a growth of new infections of 300%. The actual growth was 0.9% (The positivity rate grew from 5.9% to 6.8%).
The only thing growing exponentially were the tests.
Who might have come up with that idea ?
(How To Lie With Statistics)
I found that any corona believers arguments stopped after confronting them with this (minus the Gates thing, because that is too deep a trigger for most ). Is there similar proof for other countries?
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