Giraffe
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- Jun 20, 2015
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The containment measures that have been introduced worldwide are based neither on reliable data nor on sound science.
I created this thread to collect and discuss research that is able to give insights into where we are in the epidemic (this can vary from country to country) and scientifically based estimates of the case fatality rate of covid-19. These questions can only be answered by studies that are done in a representative cohort. Also the role of nosocomial infections belongs here. I wonder if any researcher has looked into this.
All of those latest figures of newly infected and new deaths are only distractions. They can't be interpreted without knowledge of the total numbers of tests. The guidelines on who gets tested are biased towards making covid-19 appear more deadly than it is, since usually only people with symptoms get tested while an estimated (50% to 80%) of the infected is asymptomatic. As long as every death is contributed to covid-19 irrespective of co-morbidities and age of the patient, the reported number of deaths is irrelevant. Please do not post any those data here.
If you want to comment on treatments, predictive models, the latesd number of confirmed cases or deaths, on who gains from a corona hoax and other topics that do not belong here, please chose a thread that fits.
You might want to follow the links below:
models and predictions
all covid-19 threads
...........
Iceland is a sparsely populated country, and it has tested a higher proportion of its population than any other country, and unlike other countries it's offering free screening among the general, non-symptomatic, non-quarantined population.
According to information from the Government of Iceland (date March 15) "About a third (34%) of all cases can be traced to overseas travel, mostly to high-risk areas identified in the European Alps. More than a quarter (32.7%) of cases have been traced to domestic transmission. The rest (33.2%) have not been conclusively traced to a source of transmission." [source]
In the Netherlands like in many other countries in Europe the first covid-19 case has been reported end of February. Short thereafter health care workers were proven to be infected with SARS-CoV-2. In a study they wanted to test the hypothesis of hidden community spread of the virus. So they tested many symptomatic healthcare workers in two hospitals. They found that 6.4% were indeed infected with SARS-CoV-2, and some of them must have been infected two weeks before the first official covid-19 case was reported.
An estimation of the undetected cases:
"According to the German researchers, the data showed that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of all coronavirus infections. They claimed that the true total number of people infected with coronavirus may already have reached some tens of millions of people worldwide."
Millions of coronavirus infections left undetected worldwide – study
Here is a video of one of those researchers from University Göttingen in Germany. [in German]
The point I am trying to make is: Given the high percentage of undetected cases, it's useless to hunt down the contacts of confirmed cases and quarantine them, while the majority of acutely infected is undetected. The effects of social distancing can't be evaluated for lack of reliable data. How dangerous covid-19 is can only be guestimated. How infectious is it really? Does anyone know?
The outbreak on the Princess Diamond is the best data we have so far. Based on those data Dr. John Ioanniddis estimates the infection fatality rate to be "anywhere between 0.05 up to 1%".
What do the data from Iceland tell us?
I created this thread to collect and discuss research that is able to give insights into where we are in the epidemic (this can vary from country to country) and scientifically based estimates of the case fatality rate of covid-19. These questions can only be answered by studies that are done in a representative cohort. Also the role of nosocomial infections belongs here. I wonder if any researcher has looked into this.
All of those latest figures of newly infected and new deaths are only distractions. They can't be interpreted without knowledge of the total numbers of tests. The guidelines on who gets tested are biased towards making covid-19 appear more deadly than it is, since usually only people with symptoms get tested while an estimated (50% to 80%) of the infected is asymptomatic. As long as every death is contributed to covid-19 irrespective of co-morbidities and age of the patient, the reported number of deaths is irrelevant. Please do not post any those data here.
If you want to comment on treatments, predictive models, the latesd number of confirmed cases or deaths, on who gains from a corona hoax and other topics that do not belong here, please chose a thread that fits.
You might want to follow the links below:
models and predictions
all covid-19 threads
...........
Iceland is a sparsely populated country, and it has tested a higher proportion of its population than any other country, and unlike other countries it's offering free screening among the general, non-symptomatic, non-quarantined population.
According to information from the Government of Iceland (date March 15) "About a third (34%) of all cases can be traced to overseas travel, mostly to high-risk areas identified in the European Alps. More than a quarter (32.7%) of cases have been traced to domestic transmission. The rest (33.2%) have not been conclusively traced to a source of transmission." [source]
In the Netherlands like in many other countries in Europe the first covid-19 case has been reported end of February. Short thereafter health care workers were proven to be infected with SARS-CoV-2. In a study they wanted to test the hypothesis of hidden community spread of the virus. So they tested many symptomatic healthcare workers in two hospitals. They found that 6.4% were indeed infected with SARS-CoV-2, and some of them must have been infected two weeks before the first official covid-19 case was reported.
An estimation of the undetected cases:
"According to the German researchers, the data showed that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of all coronavirus infections. They claimed that the true total number of people infected with coronavirus may already have reached some tens of millions of people worldwide."
Millions of coronavirus infections left undetected worldwide – study
Here is a video of one of those researchers from University Göttingen in Germany. [in German]
The point I am trying to make is: Given the high percentage of undetected cases, it's useless to hunt down the contacts of confirmed cases and quarantine them, while the majority of acutely infected is undetected. The effects of social distancing can't be evaluated for lack of reliable data. How dangerous covid-19 is can only be guestimated. How infectious is it really? Does anyone know?
The outbreak on the Princess Diamond is the best data we have so far. Based on those data Dr. John Ioanniddis estimates the infection fatality rate to be "anywhere between 0.05 up to 1%".
What do the data from Iceland tell us?
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