Covid-19 Models And Predictions

[theLaw]

I've seen all of these charts posted of the trajectory of the virus, but not a single chart that shows the trajectory of the average flu.

If anyone has one, I'd love to see it.

 

[JudiBlueHen]

Is this relevant?
INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY
It's by population and country, not by case.
Since the covid-19 epidemic is just beginning, we can't yet know what country/population-wide death-rates will be when it spreads.

Yes that is helpful. Interesting how Italy's death rate from pneumonia and influenza is so low, lower than US.

 

[tara]

Yes that is helpful. Interesting how Italy's death rate from pneumonia and influenza is so low, lower than US.

I'm not surprised - I would guess Italy has a more effective health system.
[I also added to the post above, not sure if you saw.]

 

[Giraffe]

[emphasis mine]

If it has gone up at all, it would be minuscule. The average prediction is that 7.1 people per thousand will die every year. That's about 50 million people worldwide, and 426,000 in Italy. So, about 1167 die in Italy every day. The number of people who died in Italy who also tested positive for Corona Virus is 3405. Considering the age of people affected and those with serious illnesses, it's very likely that the vast majority of that 3405 number (spread over two months) would have been in the yearly death toll, anyway. Even if that number were on top of the average death toll (which can have significant variations year to year), you are only looking at a 1% increase so far.

The average age in Italy is among the highest worldwide. Percentage of those 65 years old or older is 23% and increasing each year. Mortality in Italy is higher than your figure, more like 10 %. Number of deaths is 647,000 according to wikipedia.

 

[tara]

I've seen all of these charts posted of the trajectory of the virus, but not a single chart that shows the trajectory of the average flu.

These are over a year of whatever annual flus and pneumonia happen to be going round:
INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY

 

[tara]

The average age in Italy is among the highest worldwide. Percentage of those 65 years old or older is 23% and increasing each year. Mortality in Italy is higher than your figure, more like 10 %. Number of deaths is 647,000 according to wikipedia.

It's true that there is an old population there.
And average age of death from covid-1 in Italy is around 80, according to Lombardy doctor IIRC.
There are also apparently an average age of people getting seriously ill of 65. So there are a lot of people younger than 60 needing hospital care.

 

[Giraffe]

INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY
It's by population and country, not by case.
Italy:
influenza deaths: 8.15/100 000
population: ~ 60 000 000
population x flu death rate: 600 x 8.15 = 4890

Tara, the data you link are age standardized. Your math doesn't work with such data.

Age standardization

Interpretation: By an age standardization, data of different years or regions are comparable, without distortion because of different age structures. In the interpretation of age standardized morbidity or mortality rates it is important to notice that they are not real information in the sense of empirically observable data. In fact, they describe, how the mortality or morbidity rate would be, if the reference population and the standard population were equal, thus abstracting from age structure effects.

This is what I found:

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect

We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly. However children less than 5 years old also reported a relevant influenza attributable excess death rate in the 2014/15 and 2016/17 seasons (1.05/100,000 and 1.54/100,000 respectively).

 

[tara]

Tara, the data you link are age standardized. Your math doesn't work with such data.

You're right, I didn't spot that. Thanks.

I think the numbers are still interesting, though.

 

[Frankdee20]

Is this relevant?
INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY
It's by population and country, not by case.

Italy:
influenza deaths: 8.15/100 000
population: ~ 60 000 000
population x flu death rate: 600 x 8.15 = 4890

If you look at this page:
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
Italy has deaths attributed to covid-19 of about 5/100 000 (about 3000 so far this year), and it doubled in about 4 days.

Iran has a usual flu death rate of about 20/100 000, and covid-19 confirmed deaths so far at ~1.4/ 100 000, doubled in 5 days.

You can make comparisons for other countries.
You can select specific countries to add to some of the graphs if they don't already show.

Since the covid-19 epidemic is just beginning, we can't yet know what country/population-wide death-rates will be when it spreads. The rates of doubling in many countries seem to indicate it's likely

 

[tankasnowgod]

[emphasis mine]

The average age in Italy is among the highest worldwide. Percentage of those 65 years old or older is 23% and increasing each year. Mortality in Italy is higher than your figure, more like 10 %. Number of deaths is 647,000 according to wikipedia.

Thank you for the correction!

 

[tankasnowgod]

The corona virus is irrelevant, a distraction, in my opinion. The actual issue is whats going on with the economy, thats where I'd place my attention.

I think it's pretty clear at this point that the Corona Virus was an excuse (albeit a very flimsy one) for all levels of government (local, state, and federal) to absolutely destroy the US Economy (with many other nations doing the exact same thing).

 

[theLaw]

I think it's pretty clear at this point that the Corona Virus was an excuse (albeit a very flimsy one) for all levels of government (local, state, and federal) to absolutely destroy the US Economy (with many other nations doing the exact same thing).

But that's what's so perplexing.

The number of industries/countries around the world that will be decimated by this is staggering. It seems like complete overkill, which makes me wonder if it's something that has spun out of control.

If so, then we should see some invisible-hand step in to reign this in pretty quickly.

The idea that this would extend for months just doesn't seem plausible, but if there were a quick leveling-off of new cases, then it would look more like a stress-test than a complete-disaster.

 

[schultz]

The corona virus is irrelevant, a distraction, in my opinion. The actual issue is whats going on with the economy, thats where I'd place my attention.

Yah but economics is so boring.... Talking about health is much more fun!

 

[Tim Lundeen]

Another View on Influenza vs. COVID-19 Death Rates

 

[haidut]

@theLaw @tankasnowgod @charlie @ecstatichamster

The numbers coming from Italy are highly suspect. Check out this thread from HN where a user asks about how the Italian cases are confirmed to be COVID-19 and the answers he gets are just absurd - it is mostly guesses and assumptions. Apparently, there is simply not enough testing capacity (as in machines doing RT-PCR) for the Italians to have confirmed 223,000 COVID-19 cases so far. As one Italian at the end of the thread states - the issue is likely political and a cover-up for something else.
Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases? | Hacker News

 

[InChristAlone]

 

[haidut]

View attachment 17084

Wait a minute...So, the banks get $1 trillion a day and the total bailout for the public is $2 trillion?? Also, how is this even a loan? If this goes on for say 2-3 months (which is the current most optimistic estimate) how are the banks going to ever repay $60-$90 trillion? That's more than the GDP of the world for a year. If the banks were "healthy" before this fiasco started then how come they suddenly need $1 trillion a day BEFORE the economic effects from the shutdown have even started to materialize??

 

[jb116]

wow LOL this is what the fed reserve has been doing since their existence

 

[tankasnowgod]

@tara @theLaw @tankasnowgod @charlie @ecstatichamster

The numbers coming from Italy are highly suspect. Check out this thread from HN where a user asks about how the Italian cases are confirmed to be COVID-19 and the answers he gets are just absurd - it is mostly guesses and assumptions. Apparently, there is simply not enough testing capacity (as in machines doing RT-PCR) for the Italians to have confirmed 223,000 COVID-19 cases so far. As one Italian at the end of the thread states - the issue is likely political and a cover-up for something else.
Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases? | Hacker News

Wow. So, in addition to the fact that the average age of death of COVID 19 cases in Italy is 80, and the fact that 99% of cases have established underlying conditions (75% have 2 or more illness according to this Bloomberg Article )........ they might not have been tested for COVID at all in the first place?

 

[haidut]

Wow. So, in addition to the fact that the average age of death of COVID 19 cases in Italy is 80, and the fact that 99% of cases have established underlying conditions (75% have 2 or more illness according to this Bloomberg Article )........ they might not have been tested for COVID at all in the first place?

Not might, the vast majority simply have not been tested. It is just extrapolations from say 1-2 cases from a certain geographical area. That's what got the person starting the thread suspicious - i.e. how can Italy have tested 200K+ people considering there are not enough machines in the country to run all of those tests (the test accuracy assumption is a whole separate issue). One relevant quote from the thread by an Italian person (at least he claims so in another thread):
"...Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically. One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid."

...and another relevant quote from the same HN thread:

"...From the source, translated: "During the sixteenth week of 2019 mortality was lower than expected, with a daily average of 190 deaths compared to the expected 200." Read Italian news from the past few years regarding then northern region; the numbers of geriatric deaths -- far in excess of other EU members -- has been a long-running scandal. More data here: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect
I trust you've read the recent Telegraph article revealing that only 12% of reported Italian covid deaths could be directly attributed to covid."